But to gather facts in a politically charged investment environment is not an easy task. We made it simple so you can get multiple perspectives and go directly to the sources of opinion. In our office, we read all the material published at FXStreet. The US dollar is still the global reserve currency, so in economic uncertainties people rush to dollars in a large degree considering it a safe-heaven. The dollar can also act as a funding currency - when times were index people would sell borrow in dollars and invest in higher yielding assets, but when global economy starts to fall apart those dollar short positions are unwounded, and the dollar rallies. A strong currency increases the appeal of a country's bonds and stocks for foreigners. For an American investor, a weak dollar increases the appeal of foreign bonds and stocks. Currency markets play an important role in the intermarket picture because all asset prices have to be seen in relative terms not only in absolute terms. There's absolutely nothing going for the US Dollar. If you thought the Fed was going to raise two more times this year, those hopes took a serious blow last Friday in the aftermath of the very unimpressive US employment report which not only was soft but also showed a major disconnect between the impact of artificial Fed support and the impact on the real economy. Well, when you have an unemployment rate at super low levels of 4. The fact that wage growth has barely budged should be a major concern for the Fed. The only comforting thing about it is the fact that it will keep the Fed from raising rates some more and really panicking the market. When placed against the international backdrop of rising inflation, economic growth, and pressure on central banks to tighten sentiment policy in the Eurozone and UK, for example, any hesitancy by the Fed in extending its own rate hikes could compound the pressure on the dollar. The US Treasury Q1 cash deluge has significantly eased USD liquidity in the USD money market. It has contributed to an around USDbn increase in the US monetary base, which is a significant rise in USD liquidity. It is more than double the amount of USD the Federal Reserve added to the market on a quarterly basis during its recent stint of quantitative easing. It has narrowed significantly since the start of the year, as USD has become cheaper due to increased supply of USD. This effect has mitigated the increase in interest rates on the back of the Federal Reserve preparing the market for a rate hike tomorrow. Hence, while the Federal Reserve has tightened monetary conditions in Q1, the US Treasury has eased monetary conditions. Maybe the plan is dead. The greenback qualifies, and the recent decline coincides with more protectionist talk coming from the Trump administration. So rather than focusing on the U. So is there reason to believe the U. At first blush, the answer would be no, as the U. However, there are developments of concern: The first has already happened. A second change is under consideration: If passed, it could have profound implications on how issuers around the globe get their funding The recent weakness in the buck could be attributed to a variety of factors — a deceleration of US economic data, a rocky start of the Trump administration that has created fears of instability amongst investors and the still rather cautious tone from the Fed. But perhaps the biggest reason for the correction in the dollar has been the stall in US interest rates. With fixed income markets no longer exuberant about the prospect of US growth the dollar has lost its primary catalyst for appreciation. Until rates perk up, the greenback is likely to remain subdued. It seems the strong dollar policy, overt or covert, is now about to be ditched as Trump starts ruffling a few more feathers. On balance, many of the comments from Trump officials have expressed concern about the strength of the dollar or, as Navarro, complained about other currencies being undervalued. Sustained expansion should expedite the termination of the current reinvestment policy. The Fed will have to choose between a gradual reduction in reinvestment or a complete termination. There are benefits to shrinking the balance sheet instead of raising the policy rate. Such an action might tend to weaken the dollar, which could spur exports and boost factory activity. In the global context, a depreciation of the dollar would reduce pressures on countries with fixed exchange rates and external debt. So why the dollar is not strengthening? The problem that the greenback is having right now is two fold - first Trump has been talking down the currency and second, his policies make foreign investors nervous. We would not be surprised if China fired back against his recent attacks with a threat sentiment sell U. While further Dollar selloffs may be expected as markets scale back on fiscal stimulus speculations, the prospects of higher US interest rates this year should limit losses in the medium to longer term. If the greenback continues to strengthen then it could become a threat to US competitiveness, and the ability to sell off of the cars and other goods that will be produced on US soil during the Trump Presidency. There may well be another factor contributing to the correction in the USD this year. In conjunction with a corrective fall in the USD so far this year, US Treasury yields have fallen significantly, Bitcoin has collapsed, CNY has been volatile, and commodity futures prices have jumped. All of these moves may relate to Chinese government efforts to clamp down on avenues for capital outflow. Markets have high expectations about the changes in taxation, investment infrastructure and de regulation, but other issues like immigration and protectionism may be tackled too. Markets anticipated a much easier fiscal policy via lower taxation and higher infrastructure spending. Will Trump be able to satisfy the high expectations? If he fails to do so, there is room for some further USD correction. The other China problem is a trade war started by Trump that leads to Chinese retaliation. This is almost certainly going to happen. Trump may practice on Mexico first but it's one of the few campaign promises we expect him to keep. The dollar is vulnerable to the very idea of a trade war and its prospects worsen as China starts talking about dumping Treasuries. The dollar doesn't need capital flows from China to contribute to its rally. It does need the second larg-est dollar reserve holder to maintain its holdings. One of those big sticks is the threat of selling a big chunk of those dollar reserves. The announcement effect would trash the dollar fast, and probably hard. We expect further USD strength in the short term, as markets continue to reprice and put in more risk premium into the money-market curve. At the same time, current account flows, valuation and positioning are supportive of the euro. Since most times cycle balances themselves out, we could be poised for the next 3 year cycle to be a stretched 3 year cycle just as the dollar is ready to begin its 15 year super cycle decline. When it is no longer attractive to borrow in U. We think we have seen this dollar squeeze play out until the end of last year. The force may continue to play out, but other forces might be stronger. Some say that the dollar has to rise because U. In our analysis, real interest rates, i. In this context, we see it is quite conceivable that the U. What is most interesting is the disparity with the Fed's dot plot and the Fed funds futures market. Is the market always right? Not always, but this disparity is odd, and could play havoc with asset prices if the market has been wrong-footed and needs to play catch up with the Fed, which could see a sharp turnaround for the dollar and US yields. However, it all depends on the inflation figures, if prices continue to fall in the US then rate hikes and balance sheet normalisation could be shelved for some time. The Trump administ ration released its first proposal yesterday to roll back the Obama-era Dodd-Frank Wall St reet Reform Act, including a reduct ion in the scope of the federal bank stability exams, reduced oversight of the large financial institutions, regulatory relief for smaller banks and a loosening of new mortgage restrictions. So if we do see something that gets equities rolling over, even in the face of a less hawkish Fed and weak US Dollar policy, the Buck could come roaring back in a furious kind of way. This leaves the market vulnerable if the economy is cooling down again and if a recent run of softer data in the US is actually not transitory in the way the Fed had hoped. I hope this isn't the case but the more we move along the way we have been, the more I think this is where we could be headed. So while I won't be looking to buy the Buck right now, I still am holding onto that view we could see the Dollar rise again We have cautiously maintained our US dollar bias through the latest downtrend measured from the beginning of April this year labeled wave [b]. But this move has been deep and many have jump aboard the top is in train of thought. We think today's sharp rally in the dollar is the beginning of Wave 5 higher, which should carry to at least There are two broad scenarios that can change this. The first is a clear, viable, and compelling alternative. It does not exist today. Some had thought the euro could be it. The euro is the second most important currency on various metrics, but in many, like use as reserve assets, or turnover in the foreign exchange market, the dollar is more than twice as large. Some talk as if the Chinese yuan can rival the dollar. Perhaps one day, but it is not just years but decades off. As per Citi, ultimately, the administration can say whatever it wants about a weaker Dollar, but if Trump goes ahead with sweeping tax reform and aggressive fiscal stimulus and if the Fed continues to move towards higher rates, while the rest of the developed economies stand still, nothing Trump says will do anything to stop the force of the US Dollar. These fundamentals can not be denied and the Market will not be able to ignore them if things move in this direction. Correlation informs overall, markets still trade and reside in risk off mode which is a USD positive environment. While the situation with the Trump team is not an apples for apples comparison with the situation init does suggest that verbal intervention by politicians into the currency market does not always go according to plan, and can even backfire. The border tax adjustment is seen by many as automatically spurring a significant dollar appreciation. It market part of a destination-based corporate tax that is being touted. It would tax imports and exempt exports. Relying on theory, many economists expect that the dollar would rise to offset the tax. The absolute magnitude of any such support is difficult to quantify. However, to the extent that repatriation would be an overall supportive factor, however modest, for the U. As a simple majority is sufficient in Congress to change the tax code, [ In the larger picture, of the numerous factors that impact foreign exchange rates, the wish and desires of officials do not often seem to be particularly salient. Our long-term bullish outlook for the dollar is based on the divergence of monetary policy, the relative health of the financial system, the anticipated policy mix, and the uncertainty surrounding this year's elections in Europe. Investors have been betting Trump will boost public spending and spur repatriation of overseas funds by U. Either way the dollar is likely to remain strong as divergence in monetary policies will continue to widen. Look for the greenback to rise tolikely by latewhile the euro falls to 0. Longer term bullish view since May remains in place as the upside pattern from the May 3rd low at As mentioned above, there is rising potential of a top for at least a month or 2, would likely be an extended period of sloppy ranging with good sized swings in both directions wave 4 and with a resumption the longer term gains after. The world is USD dollar starved and there is a shortage of offshore dollar funding -the Eurodollar maket- and if Trump starts protectionist policies, means less dollars flow into the global system because they are doing less trade with the US, and that means there are not enought dollars around for all those people who borrowed dollars. That in it self is an extremely positive outcome for the dollar. The dollar is rising because there is a perceived lack of dollars in the outside system, and we have seen this in the LIBOR market rising with US interest rates also rising. But the other reason the LIBOR is rising is because money is being taken out of that offshore funding market and being put onshore in the US. About a trillion dollars moved out of the traditional markets -away from money market funds- into the fed funds market. There is likely going to be some repatriation of corporate profits, and the idea is that corporations can bring back all those profits they holded offshore, bring it into the U. If companies have holdings in foreign currencies and they sell them and buy dollars and bring them back that automaticaly pushes the dollar yet up again. But the more important factor are companies like Apple: They start to take it to the U. The Fed will have to extend swap lines all over the world to allow some dollar liquidity but rates are going higher for this. While most economists are focusing on either the higher US interest rates and a likelihood of a somewhat more aggressive Fed tightening cycle, or the possibility of a dramatically more stimulative fiscal stance. We see the combination the policy mix as an exceptionally potent force that will continue to propel the dollar higher. Interest index differentials provide an incentive structure for investors. Investors are paid to be long the dollar against most major currencies. Sentiment also means that for any given level of volatility, it is cheap to hedge European or Japanese exposure. DXY is now on the verge of a massive breakout higher. More importantly to a higher DXY is the ability for currency prices to finally, after 8 years, normalize. Amplifying Global FX Capital: The market is also net long EUR and, in a risk-off environment, position squaring and deleveraging is likely to see EUR selling. The likelihood that the ECB will repeat its dovish rhetoric during its Central Bank meeting in June is encouraging traders to enter selling positions on the Eurodollar after the pair reached new milestone highs above 1. Despite economic data around Europe continuing to improve confidence that the economy has turned a corner, the market is swaying towards the belief that the ECB will repeat in June that the economy still requires ECB stimulus and this could result in the Eurodollar slipping further towards 1. Leaders of major political parties are going to discuss, in the coming weeks, a new electoral law with a proportional system similar to the German model. And it's believed that an agreement is close between the leaders that could pull ahead the forex original scheduled in early Former Prime Minister and Democratic Party leader Matteo Renzi, who's desperate to seek a come back after the referendum defeat, is pushing for an early election as soon as in September, at the same time as Germany's own election. But ultimately, the move would also require President Sergio Mattarella's decision to dissolve the government. After all, the markets are starting to price in the development. ECB President Mario Draghi sounded cautious in the hearing in European parliament yesterday. Draghi said policy makers are "firmly convinced" that extraordinary amount of monetary policy support is "still necessary" for the Eurozone. Meanwhile, Draghi expects new staff economic projections at the June monetary policy meeting. ECB would then be able to reassess the risks to outlook for growth and inflation. Three forces have driven up measured inflation in the eurozone, raising the tenor of the persistent low-level murmur that the ECB policy is too loose. First, and the most obvious, is higher energy prices. Second, was the poor winter crop that lifted the price of some vegetables. Third are the distortions caused by the calendar effect of Easter. These forces are unwinding. This will be understood by the ECB's staff as they finalize their new forecasts for the ECB meeting June 8. The rise in European rates and the strength of the euro would suggest that the market has already discounted as a fact the kind of risk assessment tweaks the central bank may offer. Since the ECB will not stop the asset purchases abruptly and the current purchases are projected through this year, purchases will probably continue into next year, by which time, the Fed's balance sheet would have likely begun shrinking and a couple more interest rate hikes will probably have been delivered. Wave IV from there ended at 1. We expect core inflation will have to exceed 1. We still believe the ECB will extend its QE purchases beyond December ECB Lautensclaeger, a hawk, [ The Target2 system is designed to adjust accounts automatically between the branches of the ECB's family of central banks, self-correcting with each ebb and flow. In reality, it has become a cloak for chronic one-way capital outflows. Private investors sell their holdings of Italian or Portuguese sovereign debt to the ECB at a profit, and rotate the proceeds into mutual funds Germany or Luxembourg. The International Monetary Fund has warned that Greece may not achieve the required target to qualify for a cash bailout with discussions already on the rise of a potential Grexit. This terrible cocktail of uncertainty and political risk could ensure the parity dream on the EURUSD becomes a reality in the longer term. The IMF warned that Greece risks being forced to exit the Euro if things cannot be tied down and the German Finance Minister concurred. I think it is a currency that is not only in demise, but has a real problem and could in fact collapse in the coming year or year and a half. Investors responded positively to the electoral developments. Its premium over Germany has narrowed 20 bp over the past week. The premium over Spain has narrowed 10 bp at the same time. Eurozone data continues to look solid with first quarter GDP growth revised up to 0. Even before Macron dispatched Le Pen, many investment houses and journalists were talking up European equities and the euro. Sometimes it was offered as the counterpart to the unwind of the Trump trade. The apparent chaos of the White House, the clumsy and disorganized efforts to replace the Affordable Care Act, and the prevarications, increased the skepticism over the Administration's larger economic agenda. The perception of diminishing election risk in France and Germany coupled with dollar-weakness has come to the rescue of the euro. Amongst others because rates are so low, speculators are borrowing in euros to buy higher yielding assets. If we have a risk off event, e. The dollar started to surge at the first talk of tapering, even as the first actual rate hike was far, far, off. Similarly, the euro may well start appreciating forex before rates will actually go up again in the Eurozone[ Clearly the economic outlook for the US is better than the Eurozone — but is it so much better than Federal Reserve and ECB monetary policy should diverge so noticeably? Last month, Draghi acknowledged that deflation forces were almost vanquished. He can extend this analysis a little, but it may not yet be time to change the balance of the outlook quite yet. Still, there may be scope for another type of concession to the more hawkish contingent: It's a battle for the hearts and minds of traders between all the squishy stuff that goes into "sentiment" vs. It's just getting it a few years later. I do expect the ECB to give more verbiage to the thought that bond buying will begin to be tapered starting in March, and while one would think that this would be welcome news to the euro, traders are a strange crew of thinkers, and if they think that the Eurozone economy isn't ready for a taper, then the euro will get whacked. If they think that a taper is due and needed, then the euro will benefit. It's all about sentiment these days, and not fundamentals, as I shake my head in disgust! In today's world, though, a European bank is no longer able to tap into U. That means their clients won't have access to the same embellished terms, either. Such clients may well decide to no longer seek a U. This trend might be accelerated by the fact that interest rates in the Eurozone are lower than in the U. As much as we love to hate the euro, this trend may let the euro rise as a formidable competitor to the U. On the other hand, the Conservative majority could be reduced or disappear altogether and that would be viewed as detrimental to Britain's hand in the Brexit negotiations — and could result in a coalition government. The nature and colour scheme of that coalition is anybody's guess, but, in my humble opinion, most things managed by committee tend to sink towards mediocrity and that's a worry for the UK economy and for the Brexit deal. I suspect Sterling would be badly damaged if that appears to be the outcome in the early hours of Friday morning. What gets us really negative about the sterling, though, is their fiscal situation. The pound has been treading water for a couple of weeks against its majors. I still believe that GBPUSD will fall below 1. Another risk for the pound is going to play out if Scotland decides to go for a second independence referendum. Overall, I see the risks are still to the downside and any move higher will be seen as an opportunity to short GBP. The fall in real yields in the UK is not a new story, however, it is important when determining whether these low levels of GBP offer a buying opportunity. Currently, the UK has the third lowest real yields and is bottom for average equity yields when compared with the rest of the G The central bank now expects the U. They also upgraded their and forecast by 0. The upgraded forecasts were attributed to a weaker currency and an adjustment of their dire views of the economic damage that Brexit would have on the economy. Even with these upgraded forecasts, the BoE seemed in no rush to raise interest rates as they now expect inflation in 2 year's time a key measure to be slightly lower than previously estimated. Sullying these figures are some uncomfortable truths about the state of UK growth, which is looking dangerously unbalanced propped up entirely by services. This is a big problem for the UK economy going forward, as the outlook for the consumer is set to darken later this year as rising inflation and Brexit uncertainty start to become a concern for the consumer. The year on year CPI was expected to rise by 1. As we discussed in yesterday's update, the main tool that the BoE has to offset inflation is raising rates. From a volatility perspective politics is king, however the fundamentals for the pound are also eroding support for the currency. The GBP will probably benefit from the widest possible lead by the Tories. Should the election return a narrow lead for the Tories, the uncertainty might weight on the Pound against all other currencies. The lack of volatility on the Article 50 trigger shouldn't be a huge surprise. It was an event that was telegraphed for months and politicians on both sides avoid any inflammatory rhetoric. The next phase of GBP trading will be all about the details of negotiations but with EU leaders still getting their mandate organized, the next month may be quiet and that could send some GBP shorts to the exits. While short options on the Pound are around record levels with the ongoing uncertainty expected with Brexit negotiations, traders need to be careful how they position themselves because further short squeezes on the USD can all of a sudden lead to additional bounces higher on the Pound. The economy has been doing great, but the weak pound is causing inflation. In order to keep the inflation in check, the Bank of England may need to start raising interest rates relatively soon. Market expectations of a rate hike this year are rising. When we spoke about this 10 days ago the market expectations of a BoE hike in were just Most legal expert agree that the court will most likely rule that a trigger of Article 50 which would be the official start of Brexit would indeed require a Parliamentary vote. The markets were happy with what they heard. Sterling rose by a cent against the Euro and two cents against the US Dollar as the Prime Minister was speaking; and the confirmation of parliamentary oversight of the final EU negotiations caused the greatest spike. The yen has slightly strengthened against the US dollar because of a risk-off sentiment in the market over the past few weeks. But we consider the economy in Japan is still struggling to recover. The dollar's performance against the yen seems to be driven more by US yields and equities than the news stream from Japan, which has been light. If US Treasuring can stabilize as we expect, then the dollar can begin recovering against the yen. In the long run, not having a focus on anything but trade protectionism will hurt the dollar. However if we see an improvement in the US fiscal policy and additional FED hikes I predict inthe USD might additionally strengthen vs JPY targeting That's something both Fed chair Janet Yellen and BoJ governor Kuroda highlighted last week. Kuroda then again reiterated that he will keep the policy in Japan accommodative even though he has a more upbeat outlook on the economy and inflation in the year ahead. A lack of optimism around the likelihood that President Trump will be able to push forward with his legislative reforms will put the spotlight sentiment on Washington, and I think that this will result in further pressure on the USD. Any further market uncertainty in the United States will eventually lead to investors being lured back into the safe-haven appeal of the Yen. Unsurprisingly, the yen has a negative correlation to both the Brent and WTI oil price in the longer term. In short, while markets remain placid and calm about the current chain of events, there is considerable risk that the Russia probe could uncover criminal activity in the White House which would trigger risk aversion flows back into yen, despite Governor Kuroda's best efforts to expand QE. For now, the assumption of the FX markets is that the primary driver of trade in USDJPY is economic growth. The Bank of Japan meets. The BOJ may upgrade its economic assessment after stronger than expected exports and industrial output. It may be too early to expect the BOJ to upgrade its inflation outlook, but even many private sector economists suspect the worst of deflation is passed. Although fundamentally JPY is a bearish currency as inflation falls, it will continue to remain attractive as a safe-haven currency during A bull market in commodities normally corresponds with bull markets in other currencies than the US dollar because the dollar and commodities are expected to trend in opposite direction note commodities are priced in USD. Nevertheless, there can be periods when the sentiment is very negative toward bonds, so that safe-heaven currencies like the USD and assets considered an hedge against political uncertainty, like goldrise together. Tradicionally, the sentiment towards commodities goes opposite to equities, except during late stage expansion and contraction in the business cycle. The negative influence of rising commodities on stocks holds true during inflationary and disinflationary periods- but not necessarily during a deflation! In a deflation, rising commodity prices are generally positive for stocks. Commodities usually trend in opposite direction of bond pricesthat is, in the same direction as interest rates. Positive sentiment in both markets, commodities and bonds, is also good but not for a prolonged time because it's considered inflationary. Extension of the cut in the oil output was expected for a long time. Traders used that reason to but Oil and because of that, the price climbed sharply in the first half of May. When the rumour becomes a truth, you sell - that what usually happens. That is why traders often repeat: Current situation on the Oil is just another example of this old school quote. Second thing is the cut itself. We said that before and we will repeat that again. If some countries cut the output, other will increase it in order to close the gap and gain market shares. Shale producers, non-OPEC countries, they all are happy with the cuts as it helps their business and the overall supply-demand situation stays the same. In addition, the decline from the September high has retraced a large proportion of the price rise from the low. I think that this price move is telling us that the ability of governments to boost the economy by having central banks inflate the currency is failing. As of Tuesday afternoon, oil was having index worst two-day drop in a month. CFTC data from Friday showing a net long position of m was a sentiment extreme. The result is the market has rolled over. More nimble oil traders are taking short-term profits as the price turns lower. There was also little support for oil prices as API inventory data reported 1. Oil rises a bit more and then crashes again: Iran and Saudi both renege on their plans to cut oil production inwhich in turn leads to the break down of the Opec consortium. Russia distances itself from its previous plan to cut production bybarrels, leading to a massive oil glut. A global push higher in yields, which began stateside following Trump's victory shows little signs of ending anytime soon and this makes non-yielding assets such as gold relatively less attractive. Gold has done exactly what I said it would. With further strength in equity markets and the dollar, along with continued expectations of higher interest rates, gold could have substantially further to retreat. Back in earlysilver topped after [ This time, we have already seen these signals and consequently, silver appears to be ready for the next part of the pattern — a huge decline. The gold and the stock markets have different drivers. The stock market tends to rise year after year due to population growth, technological developments, and currency inflation. The commodity markets do not benefit from all three. You see, fear has big eyes. Traders often buy the rumor, but sell the fact, as they realize that the Earth is still spinning. Gold surged, but soon started to decline. Gold plunged, but it rebounded a bit later. The IEA warns that in order to offset recent declines and meet rising global demand, the oil industry needs to develop 18 billion new barrels every year between and Higher prices appear to be in store over the next few years. We saw this during the credit crunch. We will likely see it again at some point in this cycle. After the election, we believe the price of gold came down as the market priced in higher real interest rates in anticipation of lower regulations. We indicated that this euphoria will cede to realism, meaning that regulations might not be cut quite as much. We also suggested that any fiscal stimulus on the backdrop of low employment may be inflationary. That is, expectations of higher real rates might be replaced with expectations of higher nominal rates; net, bonds might not change all that much, but the price of gold may well rise in that environment. Gold does not necessarily rise and fall with interest rates, jewelry demand in India, or any other widely believed nonsense. Rather, gold has moved in conjunction with perceptions as to whether or not the Fed and central banks have everything under control. If you think everything is under control, and do not want insurance against a currency crisis or another debt crisis, then dump your gold. If you believe as I do, that everything is not under control, or if you want some insurance, then take a position in gold. Gold could drop on massive tax cuts and fiscal spending program in the US, however, the dip could prove to be short lived as rising inflation expectations are likely to pull up the yellow metal in the long run. Furthermore, record rally in stock markets could also force investors to allocate a small portion of their money to gold hedge demand. Here's a politics-driven forecast—inflation is a good enough excuse for gold bugs, but Trump's "mistakes" are even better. We will probably get a trade war with China, for example. Gold is already up 6. And it's up today by 0. The Fed can go ahead and raise rates three times. Political risk will outweigh and "lure investors to gold. Gold prices are on the rise, supported by a weaker dollar and safe haven buying on uncertainties over U. The yellow metals continues to shrug off better-than-expected U. S data that reinforces the view that the U. The sharp drops in both of these variables over the last couple of weeks have driven GLD and GDX skyward. Based on the risk-off moves we're seeing today and President-Elect Trump's concerns about the value of the US dollar, the big rally in GDX could easily extend toward As the US Fed normalise rates this year, it is likely to steer Investors away from speculative investments like Gold to Fixed Income as it offers a yield. I expect further weakness in Gold in the coming year, however, should we experience unexpected rapid inflation, then I can see Investors flocking to Gold in such an environment. Gold can't go broke because it has no counterparties or liabilities against it. Gold can't go broke because gold is pure wealth. Sure gold can go down in price in terms of a currency, but gold CANNOT GO BROKE. This is the crucial fact that the "dollar-bugs" fail to comprehend. This is the reason why sophisticated wealthy people own large quantities of gold. Gold represents eternal unquestioned wealth. And that would have basically on a debt rollover take the debt servicing up to 3. So, I think that that would be fragile to say the least. I think the other things where investors need to recognize is that if Trump does go with his tariffs and doing all this stuff, some of these thoughts are out there, this will trigger inflation and we're going to see gold participate in a big rally. Demand should exceed supply as we get into the second half of the year, this will encourage adherence to quotas as monthly cheques get fatter. The rise in Bitcoin is attributed to several factors. Although there are valid reasons for the policies, it creates obvious side effects with public confidence in the national currencies taking a hit. Another driver for Bitcoin is the strict capital controls in some countries like China which may drive capital into bitcoin to circumvent the control, as well as the steady devaluation of Chinese Yuan. Looking back to this time last year, the outlook for a US normalization was optimistic and as the Fed failed to deliver, it triggered one of the greatest first halves in 40 years. Yes, we could get commodity infla-tion and slow growth at the same time. But what is the relationship to low-but-rising bond yields? We might better look to demand and supply of bonds themselves. The appetite for stocks is believed to manifest the people's expectations about the economy. But they can also be perceived as a good investment in a deteriorated economic environment. Here at FXStreet, market are more concerned about the relative return of stocks forex, which can be positive even in a declining market in absolute terms. That is why a strong currency also increases the appeal of a country's stocks and also bonds to foreigners, because the relative return, when translated back to their home currencies is greater than the absolute nominal return. The opposite is also true when a currency falls, its stock market becomes less attractive to foreigners. In the same way, if the stock market in one country starts performing better than the stock market in another country, you should be aware that this could lead to a rise in value of the currency for the country with the stronger stock marketwhile the value of the currency could depreciate for the country with the weaker stock market. The handful of stocks that we have been talking about for weeks that are propping up the market are becoming unhinged. Some heavy stock are displaying odd amounts of volatility. Some 30 point unforeseen moves on a minute candle out of nohere are a dire warning that all the risk right now is to the downside on the Nasdaq. Microsoft, one of the largest caps in the entire marketplace with 8 bn shares outstanding, lost 50 cent in a matter of seconds. There is no bid when volatility starts to hit and we could see an incredible down day. Will you find a seat when the music stops? The bounce in Treasury yields witnessed after the election of Donald Trump is now decaying in the D. If the Fed continues to ignore this slow growth and deflationary signal from the bond market and continues along its current rate hiking path, the yield curve will invert by the end of this year and an equity market plunge and a recession is sure to follow. But the probability of this happening very soon is getting lower by the day. Only a handful of industry traders are talking about this: What have ETFs to do? They have to buy and sell all the constituents of the ETF, and if someone comes and starts to selll, let's say the IWM like there is no tomorrow, the IWM managers have to go out there and sell the Russel's shares. What that would in effect do is create an monstrosity of volatility. But when you look at the stocks in the ETF, they are not trading any volume. So volumes are concentrated in products like the IWM. What's the issue then? If you come in and sell this product, there is not enough index to turn around and sell the stocks. So what happens to the individual stocks? Their price would drop drastically. Not to mention less liquid products like junk bonds ETFs, which are really hard to unload Now understand something here The Fed holds a massive amount of mortgage backed securities as a result of the GFC and the 10 yr QE - Quantitative easing they launched and those securities generate a' monthly income' for the FED think about your monthly mortgage payment - it includes principal AND INTEREST - and up to this point, the Fed has been reinvesting this interest income providing extra liquidity for the mkts This is going to be an interesting next four months, in which I believe financial markets especially equity markets will reflect what is going in the life of USA President Donald Trump. Therefore, the risk to financial markets will continue to be political in nature. The economy on its own is fine, with Jupiter and Saturn in sextile through most of The political realm is not, for it reflects the transits to the charts of our world leaders, and in the case of Mr. Trump, the transits are anything but stable. The financial markets are apt to give increasingly more weight to the political instability and the risk that it poses. Be forewarned and be prepared. When stock prices were completed decimated like they were in andthis indicator was flashing major buy signals. Another way to look at the reckless speculation in stocks is the bull to bear ratio. The optimism is much greater than the beginning of the last bull market in as there are more red lines. We are about to enter a stressful period of time. The March 6, forecast was first mentioned in our blog post of November 14, I mention this again as early March is looking more and more like a low and we are getting close to a change in trend which will be down. On the evening of February 6th Jupiter will turn retrograde. The Jupiter retrograde is often found at highs and lows. Trump is at a massive historical disadvantage when it comes to stock market returns, because equities today are forex expensive. There is clearly a lot of uncertainty surrounding a Trump presidency. Topping cycles are suggesting that the uptrend is living on borrowed time. If this materializes, it would bring more than just a minor correction. Here are some cautionary sentiment developments: That would be their least-bullish outlook since [ Predicting the end of the bull market is a tough call, but the downside risk in is likely to be larger than the upside potential. Besides, infrastructure investments take forever to get drawn up, approved and shovel ready. After that, I expect the Russell small caps will lead us into the trenches. A growing divergence between large and small caps will be an important sign of such a top. Small caps have grown the most irrationally since the Trump win after lagging and could disappoint increasingly in the continued rally from here. But cycles are not reliable enough as a forecasting tool and they must be confirmed through other technical means. The weekly trend may be in the process of topping. If SPX drops to the low s, the weekly indicators will shift to a sell mode and this will be one of the requirements needed to suggest that we have started an intermediate correction. Considering the fact that the mkt has had such an explosive move since the election - pricing in perfection on so many levels - this indicator is only telling us that the mkt is currently overvalued and the risk of a correction is high vs. It is sending a warning signal about what could come in the new year Essentially a rising dollar and rising US Treasury yields are also bad news for US stocks, but the market is not concentrating on that right now. This is negative divergence in market breadth at the daily level -- another warning that a top is in the offing. Financials and industrials continued to lead, sending the Dow Jones to a new record high while the technology sector was left behind weighing on heavy tech Nasdaq index. If the divergence continues within these major sectors it could send a warning signs to investors that the rally is not sustainable, especially sincelong term fixed income maturities have started to lookattractive. I have said I thought the rally in stocks made little sense given the fact that the prospect for a more hawkish Fed was a disincentive to be long risk. Coeure said the ECB was far from having to contemplate buying stocks and had never discussed such option, which has been adopted by the Bank of Japan. Everyone is so focused on interest rates. While the federal funds rate has seen little movement and may not budge much for the rest of the year, three-month LIBOR is at multi-year highs! At the risk of highlighting another overly simple narrative to explain the strong recent performance in US stocks, the fundamental pillars of support for US stocks earnings are as strong as they've been in years. The BAI cycles projected a flat 8 years that is now ending and the cycles are rising in The cycles were picking up the election of a business-friendly administration as well as the cycles did when they were flat, preceding the election of a business-unfriendly administration. This event has led to a rise in optimism which will bring investment in new business. This has overwritten all other considerations. And, tax cuts are bullish. We have not had cuts in so long that I think that most have forgotten the beneficial effect. I have attempted to highlight various analyses that show market sell-offs are quite hard to come by, and rallies are slow to fade. JP Morgan also sent a note to investors this week, which told them to stick with stocks in the short-term. In my humble opinion stocks still have some way to go, after all rates are rising from an historically low base, prospects for growth in the US are extremely high, and global economic data is strong, the Citi Economic Surprise index for major economies is close to its highest level since This all fills me with confidence that the fundamentals will win the day, rather than the naysayers worried about valuation metrics. Much of the moves recently were supported by tighter currency restrictions in emerging economies, and if this remains the case in addition to political instability, we may see even further gains in the bitcoin. Since the financial crisis any prospect of higher rates has typically spooked equity markets. However, the situation is quite different these days. Equities are soaring as a rate rise now comes for all the right reasons. The US economy is improving, the Fed is seen as getting ahead of the curve at least where inflation is concerned and investors can now look forward to fiscal stimulus and a business-friendly Trump administration. What could possibly go wrong? The changes to Dodd Frank are likely to be small to begin with but Trump is shifting the direction of travel from more regulation to less regulation. Trump turning his attention to deregulation could be just the boost Wall Street needs to send the Dow back above the 20, mark. Technically speaking - Despite another surge we continue to have breadth indicators that diverge greatly from index prices The other indicator that continues to show weak breadth is the McClellan Oscillator for the Nasdaq indexes. Since late December this Nasdaq indicator has barely moved into the positive breadth area - In fact, it continues to remain weaker suggesting that only a handful of issues is carrying the load The enduring sideways correction will have to break out or break down at some point I do not expect the mkt to meltdown at all, but I would not be surprised to see the mkt pull back as Congress and the President start the debate But like so many pullbacks - My sense is that those pullbacks will provide a longer term opportunity for investors. What is the VIX telling us? Without giving a index investment recommendation, we would not be surprised if small caps as expressed in the Russell outperform large caps as expressed in the Nasdaq. And that my friends is where the rubber hits the road After the inauguration, what will be the nature of the next year? Sometimes markets like disruption when it takes the form of change that benefits the bot-tom line. Most folks think rising US inflation—from a skilled labor shortage, oil or Trumpian fiscal boosts—will drive the Fed to faster hikes, if not more hikes. At some point equities won't like it, but that's for later in the year. The macro forces we identified, reflation and nationalism that were expressed most clearly in the US election, but were evident before too, is spurring a dramatic shift in asset preferences. The dollar, core equities, and financials are broadly in favor. Bonds, emerging markets, gold, have broadly fallen out of favor. I am still confident that equities will remain buoyant at least for the time being and from here US equities will likely consolidate around all-time highs. The magnitude of the US stimulus the investors seem to be assuming will pass a Republican-controlled Congress has spurred a shift out of bonds, emerging markets, and gold. Three of my [ The statistics suggest we should see outsized stock gains in the months ahead [ It is important to note sentiment bond yields and bond prices go opposite. These two opposite ends of the yield curve may see different supply-demand imbalances, but general sentiment towards government bonds will provide the trader or investor with a general sense for the appetite for that particular asset class. Bonds are the focal point of the intermarket chain and the deepest market compared to equities and commodities. Any capital flows out of the bond market, is prone to create a sharp move in other asset classes. Market participants are therefore sensitive to changing inter-market relationships involving bonds. Bonds are traditionally considered risk-free investments but demand for government bonds from the public can dry up if other assets are perceived as carrying lesser risk of default. Also central banks can reduce or increase their holdings of domestic or foreign bonds. There are lots of good rationales for being long bonds: But, there are other rationales that suggest betting against his one-way bet may be worth the risk: Despite the belief voiced by many commentators the Trump reflation trade was, or is, over, we maintained confidence in our Wave view for long yields, as seen below. At least a modicum of confidence here is critical to maintaining a dollar bullish view. That's because over time interest rates, or more importantly, relative yield spread e. United States yield versus Eurozone yield is probably the most important indicator of the intermediateterm direction of currency value the major exception to this rule is the Japanese yen. This difference in real yields is particularly striking in Germany. The Year Bund currently yields 0. Therefore, real interest rates are currently a negative 1. If the ECB were to seriously commit to ending its QE program, fixed income investors and speculators would panic to get ahead of the removal of Draghi's bids; and Bund yields could surge well above the rate of inflation in a very short period of time. Therefore, it is a very credible assumption that the free market will rush to front run the offers from Draghi and Kuroda, and cause chaos in global bond markets. Confirmation of a large build in US oil inventories by the Department of Energy saw the low recorded, but then prices recovered. Higher oil prices may remove one source of pressure on US yields. Longer term, we hold our negative views on both German Bund and US Note future on the back of accelerating growth and inflation. US investors still have to adapt to the Fed's rate hike scenario 3 hikes while European investors might face another "recalibration" of the ECB's APP-programme in H2 Bonds should prove interesting in My personal opinion is that we saw historic lows in If that happens, bonds can lose money even if stocks fall. The year breakeven is elevated at 2. The peak since Septemberwas recorded a week ago at 2. However, yesterday was the first time since that the five-year breakeven also poked through 2. We hear more clients talking about this and the possibility that the Fed may be slipping behind the curve. Bloomberg calculations suggest a little more than a one-in-three chance of a hike in March has been discounted by the Fed funds futures. The CME's calculation sees a one-in-four chance is discounted. There is still more reason for bond yields to be rising rather than falling. These factors are likely to reassert upward pressure on global bond yields, and rising relative real interest rates in the USA, where rate hikes are more likely to be implemented, supporting the USD. Bill Gross grabbed headlines Tuesday by casting aside all other markets and economic indicators and saying the future of global markets hinges on one chart — the year yield. The T-note yield has been trending down for 30 years but is testing the upper limit of that channel. Gross says a break above 2. Gross' rival for the bond crown — Jeff Gundlach had a similar take but with year yields at 2. The rise in US yields since the election is market so much an increase inflation expectations but real yields. It could reflect anticipated changes to supply-side factors tax cuts and regulation that boost profitability. We hold our negative bias for US Treasuries with entry levels around tested after payrolls. The global reflation theme continues to be the driving force of markets, pushing up equity markets and bond yields. Over the past few weeks, global stocks have broken out of the muddling through state and broken on the upside not least due to a jump higher in European stocks, while US year yields edged higher again leading to a cumulative increase of bp over the past three months. We continue to see this theme playing out over the coming months and look for further upside in equities and bond yields. China is the second-largest holder of Treasuries after Japan but at the moment someone is clearly selling. Perhaps it's one of the Asian powers? We won't find out for months but Treasury-holdings data in the months ahead is must-watch economic news. The entrance was large but the exit has been shrunk. Thus, the bond market appears very risky from a longer-term perspective. Despite significant purchases by the ECB and the BOJ, bond yields appear to have bottomed. Deflationary forces in most countries have been arrested. Bond yields have been falling since the earlys. This trend may be over. That is what is at stake. We may have entered a new paradigm. The end of the year-old bond bull market is upon us. The Donald will now try to convince Janet Yellen to reverse her incipient tightening policy and bring rates back to zero—and eventually even to launch QE IV. Nicole Elliott, Private Investor and Technical Analys says the yields on the Treasury bills are far lower than the Fed funds rate, while the interbank lending rates are at least 50 bps above the Fed funds rate. She calls this as the failure of the Fed policy. Elliott then goes on to detail the dynamics of overnight offshore Yuan lending rates. The tone of this [June 14th] statement and Janet Yellen's press conference wasn't as dovish as some expected, however, the market may be calling the Fed's bluff. Traders can front run the unwind of the balance sheet when it starts. The difficulty is determining whether increased supply of bonds raises or lowers prices. In the long-term I am very certain that the balance sheet will go up. Any short-term decline is a pitstop. China is are ready to buy more U. Treasuries as the Yuan stabilizes. Although the PBoC has been quietly scooping up Treasuries for some time, this explicit comment sent bond prices higher and yields lower. This means economic conditions years in the future will underperform as the FED can't have it both ways. Accomodative policy informs this will be the case. Improved economic conditions and Fed raises runs counter to Accomodative and money in abundance as policy. Current Primary credit at 1. The minutes suggested that a balance sheet reduction in late is likely and could be done by ending reinvestments of maturing securities. This should have been bad news for long term debt and should have led to a drop in prices of US Treasuries and a rise in yields but instead the opposite happened. Ask how many times the implied probability calculators used by many failed over X amount of meetings. I see the Fed's desire to raise by placing Fed Funds above the Natural Rate but Fed Funds is not ready to rise and actually has a long way to go before a raise should be considered. Moreover, estimates of the neutral fed funds rate indicate that the rate remains below its historical average of prior cycles. The recent policy proposals aimed at increasing the repatriation of capital held abroad, which would boost the cash position of domestic firms as a source of funds and thus reduce business loan demand, may also support the case for lower interest rates going forward than otherwise might be the case. The rally in yields has been breathtaking in its ferocity and with the end of the year approaching, some of the shorts may begin taking their profits. Therefore it is not unreasonable for the 10 year yield to slide back towards the 2. The reason for the wild jump in yields is the expectation of more fiscal stimulus and rising inflation in the US that will bleed over to other countries. It is a classic case of "Sell on the rumor. It's unsustainable and dangerous. Yields are forex to respond to hard domestic economic data, right? Emerging markets reflect foreign currency exposure, which could explain correlations between EMs and Dollar Index. It's also important to know that many EM countries depend on commodity exports. For example, a side effect of a rising dollar and thereby weakening commodity pricesis that EM currencies such as the Brazilian Real and Russian Rubble suffer. That's important because weaker EM currencies have a negative impact on EM stocks making these look less attractive for global investors. Also rising Treasury yields often associated with a stronger dollar also reduce the appeal of higher yielding and riskier EM assets. Inversely, they do better when yields are dropping along with the dollar. Look above to the sentiment in the US dollar as it is is part of the reason for money flows into and out emerging assets. When considering a particular asset class or financial market, instead of versus analyzing the subject in isolation, intermarket analysis includes all related asset classes. It is important to remember that these relationships are dynamic which makes trading applications even more difficult. This page's contents try to go beyond traditional historical intermarket relationships, and to be representative of the current relationships. As a result she hinted that interest rates may go even lower. Henrik Gullberg, Research Analyst at Nomura: The small upward revision in oil output, coupled with the upward revision market RUBOIL, means the budget is reliant on higher RUB oil revenues. This in turn means Russia needs the OPEC production cuts to be adhered to; if not, RUB needs to weaken to protect the fiscal position. These gains have been supported by the 13 and 21 week mvg avgs and, for the most part, have tracked the upper band of positively trending weekly Keltner channels. Setbacks have been temporary and limited. This suggests that the market believes that there is a very real possibility that the Czech authorities will disband with the peg in the first half of this year. The risk of a rate hike is growing, especially if we see a series of consecutive sell offs in the TRY this week. Longer-term outlooks will not change due to the short squeeze [in the Yuan]. More powerful fundamental drivers include the broader trajectory of the dollar and interest rate differentials. Still, capital controls and the willingness of officials to facilitate such a powerful squeeze demonstrates their resolve and ability to manage the challenges. As we reported last week the calculation continues to move away from the expensive US Dollar and will now be measured against an increased basket of currencies. This move has the potential to make Chinese exports cheaper and imports more expensive. However, the obvious impact will weaken the currency core and therefore be supportive for the Shanghai index which will be helpful as money leaves the country seeking a safe-haven. A wide range of analysts follow the gloomy forecast for the Mexican economy at large, with a correspondingly grim set of expectations for the Peso's future value. SocieteGenerale expect the Peso to sink further, to a level of 23 to the Dollar, U. Less alarmist, but still bad news if you have a position on the Peso, is longforecast. Of course, supporting the rotating carousel of real estate, commodity, and stock bubbles, while also trying to stem bond defaults, comes at a cost. All of that debt and money creation usually results in a decimated currency. However, China uses its currency reserves held mostly in dollar denominated Treasuries to keep the value of the yuan from falling too quickly. Right now, the decline in the renminbi is also a reflection of a strong dollar. Since we still see the dollar as the dominant force in the FX world in the coming months, this pair may climb further into record territory. The world may have to get used to a weaker renminbi, Anyone that that traded ZAR for an extended period of time should be numb to political and social instability. While the headlines of No Confidence vote against Zuma might have made splash news, we suspect most traders will thinking around the event risk. In our view the current political instability is a binary event both ending with higher ZAR. Should Zuma get impeached, a new and potentially better president will be elected, ZAR positive. If Zuma stay in power, then its business as usual and low volatility and higher interest rates environment will drive speculators back into ZAR. Gov't corruption, strikes, and interest rates that should be higher to attract foreign investment, have been the bugaboos for the rand, but as I said, if the rand is allowed to rally VS the dollar, as it is right now, then it could be a very good indicator that the dollar is weakening. If USA economic reports appear to show a plateauing and US equities stall, the Fed may revert to a wait and see stance through the middle of the year. A sense of stable Fed policy may further encourage capital flows to other countries exhibiting stronger growth trends. If Trump struggles to implement tax reform, including a border tax, it may mean a more moderate growth path for the USA, less reason for Fed rate hikes, and less disruption to international trade and less upheaval in the US economy. It may be consistent with a more modest but also more stable outlook for the US economy. A benign outlook that sees capital move towards assets outside of the USA. Measures of US investor bullishness are running close to their highest levels in more than two years. Emerging market equities and US small cap stocks seem to be particular in vogue at the moment. Investors seem to be expecting stronger global growth and inflation this year and rising interest rates. I would agree with the economic diagnosis. I am actually short the US Dollar against the Turkish Lira, looking for this market to reverse course after racing to record highs, going parabolic and tracking in violently overbought territory across the daily, weekly and monthly timeframes. I can remember in January when USDRUB made a similar move before pulling back, and I can remember in January when USDZAR and USDCAD did the same. My hope is that this pattern plays out yet again with USDTRY in January The relatively high interest rates offered in Russia have attracted investors, and firmer oil prices have helped to stabilize the Russian economy. Now speculators have really started to move into the rouble as they make bets on the possibility of the end of sanctions. Taper Tantrum, these yield curve dynamics remain negative for EM bonds and EM FX. EM equities are a different matter, supported in part by the continued post-election rally in DM equity markets. Higher commodity should also help insulate some EM countries from the selling pressure. Once the Yuan stabilises against the U. Market sentiment may, however, be influenced by this and the PBOC may find that its intervention point mirrors expected base-levels of support. Both are interest rates transformed to an exchange rate. Exchange rate and interest rate are synonomous terms. Fed Funds rates are contained therefore DXY is restricted from movements. Fed Funds is not only the supreme USD interest and overnight rate but regulate Fed Funds is to stifle all USD interest rate movements. To understand this concept is to conquer perfect market knowledge, become a currency trader rather than a person who trades currencies and realization the amount of pablum written is astounding. There will be unprecedented volatility between inflation and deflation cycles in the future due to these factors. This represents a huge opportunity for those that can identify these inflexions points and know where to invest. The markets will ultimately reflect the President. The gold price continued to rise today, chalking up its 6th gain in 7 sessions and bringing it to a 3 week high as investors brace for the release of the minute. This year is going to be the biggest year for geopolitical surprises since the Iraq war, and even that could be seen from far off. In practice, uncertainty and volatility will be high next year. The goal of understanding sentiment is to discern when a trend has reached an extreme point and is prone to reverse its direction. 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How to Understand "Market Sentiment" in Forex Market
How to Understand "Market Sentiment" in Forex Market
Today the World is being Digitalized and Technological. advancements are on Fire.
It pays full differential pay for activated reservists for one year.
Stands for purchasing power parity, a criterion for an appropriate exchange.
He was also an able biblical commentator, passionate preacher, and influential churchman.
She is an inspiring teacher and conductor, as well as a wonderful role model for women in both the field of music and in the professional world.